A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
